The Truth About Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Phil

On Monday morning, Ethan, Dave, and I spent an unusual amount of time celebrating Groundhog Day by completely trashing the entire experience on the I-95 Morning Show—and honestly, it was a ton of fun. The one thing we somehow forgot to do was check in with our resident wildlife expert, our friend Jen the Zookeeper.

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So we decided to fix that. We reached out to Jen and asked her to weigh in with a little actual insight about the animal behind the legend and this very strange American tradition. Here’s what she had to say.

Groundhog Day: A Rodent, a Shadow, and a Lot of Vibes

Every February 2nd, America turns to a chubby, overconfident groundhog and asks a very serious question: How’s winter feeling, my guy? If the groundhog sees his shadow, winter sticks around. No shadow? Spring shows up early. Science? Eh. Tradition? Extremely yes.

Where this all started

Groundhog Day traces back to ancient Europe, where people used Candlemas (Feb 2) to predict the weather. The idea was simple: clear day = more winter, cloudy day = early spring. When German immigrants came to Pennsylvania in the 1700s, they brought the tradition, along with their fondness for rodents. Europe had hedgehogs and badgers; Pennsylvania had groundhogs. Close enough.

Read More: Connecticut Animal Expert Says Get Your Pooch Inside 

Thus, Punxsutawney Phil was born: a groundhog who has been “predicting” the weather since 1887 and, according to official lore, is immortal thanks to “groundhog elixir.” (Science has not verified this potion.)

The science part (brace yourself)!

Real talk: Phil’s accuracy rate is… not great. Studies put groundhog predictions at around 35–40% accurate, which is worse than flipping a coin but way better for tourism.

Also, shadows don’t actually predict seasons. Seeing a shadow just means clear skies, which are common in cold, high-pressure winter weather. So Phil isn’t forecasting spring—he’s basically saying, “Yep, it’s sunny.”

There is real biology involved, though. Groundhogs are true hibernators. Their heart rate drops from about 80 beats per minute to 5, and their body temperature sinks close to freezing. When Phil pops out of his burrow, scientists could reasonably say: that groundhog is extremely annoyed.

Why we still love it

Groundhog Day survives because it’s harmless, goofy, and gives winter-weary humans something to yell about before February gets emotionally aggressive. Plus, it reminds us that even in a world of satellites and supercomputers, we’re still like, “But what does the rodent think?”

And honestly? That’s kind of beautiful.

More on Jen the Zookeeper

Jen has spent more than 30 years immersed in the fields of animal care, conservation, and science education. As the former Director of Animal Care for the New Canaan Nature Center in Connecticut, she oversaw the care of native mammals, reptiles, and birds of prey while educating the public about the important roles these wild neighbors play in our ecosystem. Her experience also includes time with both the Bronx Zoo and the Los Angeles Zoo, where she focused on the care of African and Asian wildlife and helped teach visitors about the delicate balance between humans and natural habitats.

Later, while working at a wildlife sanctuary in Half Moon Bay, California, Jen played a key role in training and handling nearly 50 exotic species. She also developed educational programs for at-risk and foster youth, helping historically underserved kids build trust, confidence, and healing connections with the non-releasable animals at the sanctuary.

In addition to her extensive wildlife work, Jen has experience in horse and dog training, animal control, veterinary care, and all things conservation education. Today, she owns and operates Jen Kotkin Pet Care, where she provides personalized care, exercise, and enrichment for dogs, cats, horses, birds, and more.