Connecticut’s 2023-24 Winter Forecast: It’s a Crap Shoot
I admit I am a weather junkie, and I've spent hours researching long-range forecasts for New England's upcoming winter of 2023 & 2024. I've found there are two significantly different takes on the forecasts.
Accuweather.com forecasts a mild winter with above-normal temperatures with not that much snow. The Old Farmer's Almanac's extended winter forecast states, "The rest of Connecticut is part of the Atlantic Corridor Region. The prediction for the Atlantic Corridor also calls for above-normal snowfall, as much as 2 to 3 inches above monthly averages." The snowiest periods will be at the end of December, late January, and mid-February, the prediction says. Looks like we have dueling winter weather forecasts for the Northeast, so you can choose which one you prefer.
NOAA(The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) states the science behind weather predictions. A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time, and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.
I reached out to our official I-95 Morning Show meteorologist, Jack Drake, who told me, and I quote, "There’s really no way to forecast an upcoming winter this far in advance. There can be “signals” on the long-range modeling, or perhaps you can make an educated guess based on the large scale patterns (i.e., El Niño or La Niña) but at the end of the day it’s really just a guessing game until we get into winter and see what kind of pattern we are in."
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